London, United Kingdom. Britain’s network operators said the country will have enough gas and electricity supply this summer despite declining domestic gas production and concerns over Middle East energy supplies.
Middle East disruption and supply outlook
Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and halted Qatari LNG production, which accounts for around a fifth of global liquefied natural gas supply.
National Gas said in its Gas Summer Outlook for 2026 that forecasts indicate the market has the capacity to deliver sufficient supply to meet demand this summer, according to a statement from Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, the company’s director of energy systems and resilience.
Domestic production and imports
Domestic gas supply from the UK Continental Shelf is expected to be 6 per cent lower than last summer, at 13.1 billion cubic metres, reflecting years of declining North Sea output.
Imports of gas from Norway are expected to rise by 24 per cent to 12.2 bcm, while imports of LNG from other countries are expected to increase by 65 per cent to 2.7 bcm, National Gas said.
Prices, consumer protection, and demand
Wholesale gas prices are up 50 per cent since the start of the conflict, increasing costs for Britain to attract LNG cargoes from alternative sources. National Gas said the duration of higher prices will depend on how long it takes Qatari production to recover and shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz.
Domestic energy consumers will be protected from higher wholesale prices by regulator Ofgem’s price cap, with the current level set until the end of July.
Total gas demand is expected to be similar to last summer, around 29.8 bcm.
Electricity generation mix
Gas-fired power plants typically provide around 30 per cent of the country’s electricity, though National Gas said demand is volatile over the summer months depending on the availability of wind and solar power.
How might changes in LNG imports and wholesale prices affect your household energy use this summer?
