Nicosia, Cyprus. The International Monetary Fund forecasts Cyprus will maintain a fiscal surplus of 2.64% of GDP in 2026 while public debt continues to decline. The projections are contained in the IMF’s April 2026 Fiscal Monitor.
Fiscal balances
According to the IMF, Cyprus is projected to record a net lending position of 2.64% of GDP in 2026, down from 2.99% in 2025 and expected to ease further to 2.5% in 2027.
The primary balance is expected to remain strongly positive at 3.72% of GDP in 2026, compared with 4.07% in 2025 and 3.62% in 2027.
The cyclically adjusted balance is forecast at 1.88% of potential GDP in 2026, compared with 2.02% in 2025 and 1.86% in 2027.
The cyclically adjusted primary balance is projected at 2.69% in both 2026 and 2027, slightly below 2.83% in 2025.
Revenue and expenditure
On the revenue side, the IMF expects a gradual decline, with government revenue falling from 43.39% of GDP in 2025 to 42.76% in 2026 and 41.71% in 2027.
Government spending is also projected to decrease, with expenditure declining from 40.41% of GDP in 2025 to 40.12% in 2026 and 39.21% in 2027.
The IMF said Cyprus is forecast to continue improving its fiscal position, supported by falling expenditure and sustained surpluses.
Public debt outlook
The IMF highlighted a reduction in gross public debt, projected to fall from 55.3% of GDP in 2025 to 50.88% in 2026 and 46.56% in 2027.
Net debt is also projected to decline, from 24.93% of GDP in 2025 to 21.12% in 2026 and 17.76% in 2027.
Which of the IMF’s projected indicators for Cyprus’s public finances do you follow most closely?
