Israel Faces Coalition Deadlock After Inconclusive Election, With Several Scenarios Open

Jerusalem, Israel. This week’s parliamentary vote produced no decisive winner, so nobody is currently in a position to form a government. Benjamin Netanyahu continues as caretaker prime minister, while most seats in the Knesset are held by opposition parties that want to remove him.

How the process works

Final official results are due next week. President Isaac Herzog will then consult representatives of the parties and ask the candidate he considers most likely to succeed to try to assemble a government.

If that candidate fails, a second one may make an attempt. Should that also fail, the Knesset may put forward another candidate. The whole procedure is limited to about 100 days, and if nobody manages to form a government within it, a new election takes place.

On Wednesday Herzog said every effort must be made to prevent another election. He asked the parties to approach the consultations with an open mind.

Scenario one: a Likud-led coalition

In this scenario Netanyahu’s Likud, the largest party in the Knesset, would build a coalition. It would probably draw in centrist and right-wing opposition parties, such as Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot and the second-largest party, Israel Our Home, led by Avigdor Lieberman, and Naftali Bennett’s Together faction.

Such a bloc would hold 66 seats in the 120-seat chamber, which is a majority. The option looks unlikely for now, however. Netanyahu would probably have to give up his natural partners, the far-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. The opposition parties, for their part, would have to go back on their central pledge to voters, which was to unseat Netanyahu.

Scenario two: a unity government

If neither side can put together a government after weeks of drawn-out talks, a unity government could emerge as a final alternative. Renewed fighting with Iran or other actors might also draw the opposing sides together.