Lula wins historic fourth term in Brazil as Flavio Bolsonaro challenges result

Sao Paulo, Brazil. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva secured a historic fourth term in Sunday’s election, Brazil’s electoral court announced, defeating Senator Flavio Bolsonaro by more than 4 million votes. Bolsonaro rejected the outcome and said he would seek its annulment.

Challenge centres on voting extension

Bolsonaro, whose father is former President Jair Bolsonaro, had finished ahead in the opening round before losing the runoff. He said his challenge would concern a Supreme Court justice’s decision on Sunday to prolong voting by two hours.

Analysts considered annulment unlikely, noting that his campaign had itself requested additional voting time because of rain across the conservative-leaning south. They also pointed out that his defeat was more than twice as large as his father’s losing margin.

Mario Braga, who covers Latin America for risk consultancy RANE, said protests by the right could emerge over the coming days, but “it’s very improbable that it will lead to the reversal of the result.”

The senator’s rejection of the outcome recalled Jair Bolsonaro’s response to his 2022 defeat against Lula. The former president never acknowledged that loss. The Supreme Court subsequently imposed a 27-year prison sentence on him for planning a coup intended to keep him in office.

Unexpected outcome unsettles investors

Lula’s victory ran counter to polling, historical precedent and an international mood hostile to incumbents. It also interrupted a succession of electoral wins by the right across Latin America.

Brazilian markets were shaken after investors had positioned themselves for a Bolsonaro presidency. Investors expected those bets on a new government to reverse during a volatile trading week.

During Asian trading, a Tokyo-listed exchange-traded fund following Brazil’s Bovespa index, 1325.T, plunged by almost 15% following the news. The Brazilian real, BRL=, was poised for a steep decline versus the US dollar.

Another comeback for Lula

The result added another political recovery to the career of Lula, 80, a leading figure on the international left who has dominated Brazilian politics during this century.

He spent 2018 to 2019 in prison over corruption allegations. The charges were subsequently overturned, opening the path to his victory over Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.

Left-wing federal lawmaker Erika Hilton, who accompanied Lula in Sao Paulo as votes were counted, told Reuters: “He is a statesman, a giant,”

His bid for another term had at times appeared unlikely to succeed. Years of corruption scandals and increasing prices had weakened voters’ regard for Lula and his Workers’ Party. At the same time, broad social shifts made the former union leader and metalworker appear disconnected from an economy increasingly organised around apps and an expanding informal workforce.

Pollsters attributed his success to turnout that exceeded expectations. Leonardo Barreto, co-founder of Think Policy, said voters had preferred the reassurance of a familiar Lula to the novelty offered by Bolsonaro.