Macaes warns Europe faces existential challenge in changing global order

Nicosia, Cyprus. Former Portuguese minister Bruno Macaes warned that Europe faces an “existential” question over its position in a world increasingly shaped by artificial intelligence, economic protectionism and the growing power of China and India. He made the remarks at the EY Cyprus Future Realised Forum 2026.

Changing international order

The former secretary of state for European affairs said the international order was no longer simply multipolar but “metamorphic”, changing constantly as technology, trade and geopolitics rewrite the rules.

Macaes said the shift was centred on a broad redistribution of global economic power, pointing to China’s emergence as a serious rival to the United States and India’s sharp rise in income per head compared with the global average.

Trade tensions and protectionism

Recent trade disputes showed that China’s rise could no longer be viewed as dependent on Washington’s approval, Macaes said. He argued that Beijing had already demonstrated its ability to force the United States to compromise on important trade issues.

He also warned that protectionism had returned with considerable force. Citing figures presented during his address, Macaes said announced US tariffs were approaching an effective global rate of 16.4 per cent, their highest level in roughly a century.

The rate currently affecting businesses was closer to 9.8 per cent, he said, partly because companies had built up stocks before the measures took effect.

European concerns

Macaes cited tariffs announced for Canada, Mexico and China, as well as the threat of a 50 per cent levy on the European Union, as evidence of a more difficult environment for global trade.

For Europe, he said, the challenge extended beyond tariffs.