Turkey’s opposition struggles to sustain momentum after Izmir mayor defects to Erdogan’s AK Party

Izmir, Turkey. The opposition’s strong showing in the March 2024 local elections led its leaders to think they had found a route to beating President Tayyip Erdogan, but the mayor of Izmir has now joined his AK Party. Cemil Tugay, who won the post on an opposition ticket in 2024, switched sides this month.

From electoral gains to setbacks

More than two years after those elections, the opposition’s foremost presidential challenger is in prison. A court ruling has divided its main party, and several of the mayors it elected have moved over to the AK Party.

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Opposition remains defiant

Opposition figures say they still trust democratic elections. They expect voters to reject what they regard as a politically driven legal campaign against government critics when national elections take place in 2028.

The government rejects the claim that the court cases against its opponents have political motives. It says the judiciary acts independently.

The challenge of keeping public anger alive

Until the next national vote, the opposition must keep alive public resentment of what it describes as coercion by the government of Erdogan, who has held power for 23 years, first as prime minister and then as president.

Seren Selvin Korkmaz, co-founder and co-director of the Istanbul-based think tank IstanPol Institute, said: “I do not believe this anger has disappeared.” She warned that it will fade unless it is turned into political or organisational energy, adding: “It may evolve into disappointment, hopelessness or apathy.”

Izmir as a symbol

Izmir, on the Aegean coast in western Turkey, illustrates the opposition’s difficulties well. It is the country’s third-largest city, with about 4.5 million residents, and the AK Party has never won it in an election.

Tugay’s move is a major symbolic blow in an area long seen as the stronghold of Turkey’s secular, social democratic opposition.