Geneva, Switzerland. The United Nations has warned that El Niño is developing this year with exceptionally high intensity and is already affecting weather patterns worldwide. For Europe, data indicate a greater likelihood of extreme weather events affecting temperatures, rainfall and storms.
WMO issues seasonal alert
According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen rapidly in the coming months. The organization said this will raise the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world.
In its first seasonal alert bulletin, the WMO described a rapid progression toward a high-intensity El Niño episode between July and September. It said the event is expected to reach the third of four levels on its scale.
Recent confirmations
The update follows a June 2 announcement by the WMO stating that the onset of El Niño was imminent. On June 11, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed that the phenomenon had already begun in May.
The WMO said El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months.
Global climate effects
The phenomenon raises surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, altering winds, pressure systems and rainfall patterns on a global scale, according to the WMO. The organization said it also strongly affects global temperatures in the following year.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in the organization’s statement that El Niño “is already present and is expected to strengthen rapidly, reaching high intensity.”
She added that it would “increase the likelihood of drought and heavy rainfall,” as well as the risk of heatwaves on land and at sea in many regions of the world.
Temperature outlook
During the most recent El Niño event, in 2023 and 2024, the two hottest years on record were registered. The WMO said the cyclical phenomenon affects the planet’s climate for several months.
According to the organization, forecasts from leading international centers point to a continued and substantial rise in ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, expected to exceed 2 degrees Celsius in the key monitored regions. The WMO said forecasting models show strong convergence, indicating a high degree of certainty.
