WMO warns El Niño could become strongest on record and persist into 2027

Geneva, Switzerland. The El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to intensify into 2027 and could become the strongest ever recorded, increasing the risk of extreme weather into next year, the World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday.

The UN weather agency forecast a near 100 per cent likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027, driven by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures.

Forecasts and potential strength

The WMO said this was the first time it had expressed such a high degree of certainty about the persistence of an El Niño event.

“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told a press conference in Geneva.

Pacific Ocean temperatures sampled during this year’s El Niño, one of four events classified in the highest “very strong” category since records began in 1950, are already more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal, the WMO said.

Global weather risks

El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs every two to seven years, generally lasts up to 12 months and can bring intense rainfall and drought across Latin America.

A very strong El Niño can significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns and contribute to extreme weather, including droughts and typhoons.

While the phenomenon occurs naturally and is not directly linked to fossil fuel-driven climate change, warmer ocean temperatures can intensify it.

“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said.

Effects on food and temperatures

The event has already affected soft commodities in tropical regions and contributed to a severe food crisis across Central America’s Dry Corridor.

The WMO said El Niño is expected to peak towards the end of this year, while its effects are likely to continue into 2027 and contribute to higher global temperatures next year.